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CSEF - Center for Studies in Economics and Finance

Perché i sondaggi continuano a sbagliare

6 December
by Massimo Aria e Sergio Beraldo, Lavoce.info

Anche sul referendum costituzionale i sondaggi non hanno azzeccato il risultato. Questa volta è stata la distanza tra “no” e “sì” a essere sottostimata. Le ragioni sono molte: le non risposte e la massa notevole di indecisi, certo. Ma anche alcune rilevanti leggerezze nella selezione dei campioni.
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Public debt and private investment in China

3 November
by Yi Huang, Marco Pagano and Ugo Panizza, VoxEu.org

High levels of public debt are correlated with lower economic growth across countries, but questions remain about whether this relationship is causal. Using Chinese data, this column explores whether increasing public debt crowds out private investment. City-level investment ratios are found to be negatively correlated with local government debt for private manufacturing firms, but not for state-owned or foreign-owned manufacturers. This suggests that as well as the short-term benefits of fiscal stimulus, there might also be negative longer-term effects, such as the crowding out of more efficient firms.
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ESBies: Safety in the Tranches

20 September
by Markus K. Brunnermeier, Sam Langfield, Marco Pagano, Ricardo Reis, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, and Dimitri Vayanos, VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal

The Eurozone lacks a safe asset that is provided by the region as a whole. This column highlights why and how European Safe Bonds, a union-wide safe asset without joint liability, would resolve this problem, and outlines steps to put them into practice. For given sovereign default probabilities, these bonds would be as safe as German bunds and would approximately double the supply of euro safe assets. Moreover, owing to general equilibrium effects, they would weaken the diabolic loop between sovereign risk and bank risk.
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Employment and wage insurance within firms: Worldwide evidence

17 June
by Andrew Ellul, Marco Pagano, and Fabiano Schivardi, VoxEu.org

Most countries feature some form of government-provided unemployment insurance, but there is an alternative provider of insurance for employees – the firm they work for. This column asks whether the provision of implicit insurance by family firms in particular to employees is a substitute for the provision of explicit insurance by governments. Family firms stabilise employment more than non-family firms, and their insurance provision is greater when the insurance provided by the public sector is less generous.
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Previdenza complementare tra opportunità e rischi

17 June
by Tullio Jappelli, Lavoce.info

Home › Argomenti › Pensioni › Previdenza complementare tra opportunità e rischi PENSIONI Previdenza complementare tra opportunità e rischi 17.06.16 Tullio Jappelli AddThis Sharing Buttons167 Commenta Aumentano gli iscritti alla previdenza complementare. Ma il suo sviluppo deve superare anche molte insidie. È cruciale un’informazione corretta, specie sui piani individuali. Servono strumenti standardizzati, con opzioni di investimento semplici e facilità di confronto tra costi e rendimenti.
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Morality, Economic Inequality, and Policy Responces

17 May
by Salvatore Morelli, Dissertation Reviews

Continued interactions among human beings within complex societal structures may lead to varying distributions of economic resources. A shared vision of justice, which is in turn shaped by human repeated interactions, can justify potentially wide divisions in the society among the well-to-do and the relatively less fortunate. In other words, the resulting unequal outcomes may be acceptable for society, even if perceived as discomforting and distressing to many, for they may be deemed just and equitable to the majority. If inequalities are deserved, the source of ever increasing inequality is posited on strong moral grounds and as such may not necessarily require any corrective intervention.
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Per le lauree online un sostegno di troppo

26 April
by Maria De Paola e Tullio Jappelli, Lavoce.info

In Italia operano undici università telematiche, piccole e con tasse di iscrizione elevate. Ora un decreto ha ridotto i requisiti di accreditamento e di conseguenza i costi: un sostegno ingiustificato. Mentre la concorrenza su un piano di parità potrebbe spingerle a offrire un servizio migliore.
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The Sovereign-Bank Diabolic Loop and ESBies

19 April
by Markus Brunnermeier and Marco Pagano, Harvard Law School Forum

The euro-area crisis illustrates that the sovereign-bank diabolic loop really consists of two distinct but mutually reinforcing feedback loops: a “bailout loop” and a “real economy loop.” First, the deterioration of sovereign creditworthiness reduced the market value of banks’ holdings of domestic sovereign debt. This reduced the perceived solvency of domestic banks, which in turn increased the chances that banks would have to be bailed out by their (domestic) government, and thus increased sovereign distress even further, engendering a bailout loop. Second, as distressed banks cut back on lending, they triggered a reduction in economic activity and tax revenue, which also contributed to weakening government solvency in these countries, triggering a real-economy loop.
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L’accordo sulla Bad Bank e i problemi delle banche italiane

18 February
by Giovanni W Puopolo, Corriere del Mezzogiorno

Dopo un negoziato durato quasi un anno, l'accordo raggiunto martedì sera 26 gennaio tra il governo italiano e la Commissione europea sulla bad bank (letteralmente ) prevede la possibilità per le banche italiane di cedere i propri crediti deteriorati a nuovi veicoli finanziari creati appositamente per ogni istituto, le bad banks appunto.
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Napoli, un terreno fertile per la <Mela>?

4 February
by Tommaso Oliviero, Corriere del Mezzogiorno

È di pochi giorni fa la notizia che Apple Inc. investirà a Napoli. Il dibattito si è concentrato sugli sviluppi occupazionali. Tuttavia, questa notizia potrebbe essere interpretata positivamente anche da altri punti di vista.
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Financial structure and growth revisited

1 February
by Sam Langfield and Marco Pagano, VoxEU.org

Why is growth in Europe so low? Among the contributing factors, this column highlights the role of financial structure. Intermediation in Europe is heavily bank-based, and the authors' novel empirical findings indicate that such a structure exerts a negative effect on long-run economic growth and exacerbates its response to sharp drops in real estate prices. The findings support policymakers’ efforts to rebalance financial structure towards securities markets.
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